US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement: what comes next?

On January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement. As the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases and largest economy, the absence of US leadership raises critical questions about the future of international climate action and the feasibility of meeting the ambitious target of limiting global warming. 

The global implications of US withdrawal

The Paris Agreement’s strength lies in the collective commitment of its parties to reduce emissions and accelerate the global transition toward a sustainable future. The US played a pivotal role in shaping the agreement. Its departure under the first Trump administration, its subsequent re-engagement under the Biden administration, and now its second withdrawal introduce volatility and uncertainty around the future of climate leadership. It also leaves a leadership void that complicates international collaboration, undermining the agreement’s momentum and setting a concerning precedent for other nations.

Can the world meet Paris Agreement goals without the US?

Achieving the climate targets outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement without US federal leadership will be challenging but not impossible. Success will depend on enhanced ambition from all other nations and the leadership of subnational actors, including state and local governments, private industries and corporations, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). 

States from Maryland to New York to Illinois to California are prime examples of how subnational policies and actions can drive significant climate impact even in the absence of federal leadership through proactive target-setting. Texas has become the country’s leading producer of wind energy and second largest producer of solar energy, showcasing how critical energy diversification is to a fast-growing state. Entities like Boulder County, Colorado and the 4 Corners Carbon Removal Coalition have created climate action plans and innovation funds to spur investment in essential, emerging technologies. Cities, including those in the 350-member bipartisan Climate Mayors network, have established renewable energy standards and carbon reduction goals, demonstrating how localized efforts can have global ripple effects. At the same time, businesses, academic institutions, and NGOs are stepping up to champion clean energy transitions, finance low-carbon technologies, drive climate innovation, and even cover dues owed by the U.S. to the UN global climate body. These subnational efforts within the US, alongside continued international collaboration, could help close the gap left by US federal inaction.

Moving forward: opportunities in the void

The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement underscores the need for collective global leadership. Climate action is a shared responsibility and this moment calls for bold commitments from all sectors of society. By leaning into the economic and environmental opportunities presented by the clean energy transition, the global community can continue making strides toward a sustainable future—with or without US federal support.

As history has shown, challenges often pave the way for innovation. The path to meeting Paris Climate Agreement targets will demand resilience, creativity, and unity, qualities the global community has demonstrated time and again.

To better understand international climate policies and how they impact your organization, explore our Climate Policy Navigator. This tool provides insights into global reporting frameworks and climate risk disclosures most relevant to your business, helping you stay informed and proactive in addressing climate challenges.