4 min. read
Last updated Mar 20, 2025
Introduction
Rapid growth in electricity demand across the United States, driven by artificial intelligence (AI) data center expansion, and increased industrial electrification, is placing significant pressure on power grids. After decades of stable electricity load, demand has increased significantly since 2022 and is expected to rapidly grow for the foreseeable future. Natural gas currently fuels around 40% of US electricity generation. Its share is expected to grow in the coming years. However, unabated natural gas generation is not compatible with stakeholder targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Combining carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) with natural gas-fired generation is one pathway to meet growing electricity demand and achieve GHG emission reduction targets.
The role of natural gas in electricity supply
Natural gas generation versus renewable generation deployment
Electricity generators can provide multiple products to the grid, generally split into two categories: energy (power production) and reliability (consistent availability). Natural gas-fired plants can provide both, whereas renewable energy sources like wind and solar generate energy but offer limited reliability.
As electricity demand rapidly grows, the grid will need both energy and reliability to function effectively. However, the queue for connecting renewable assets to the grid has a years-long backlog which is delaying their deployment. The grid will need additional reliability assets to support the large amounts of renewables (usually in the form of storage). Some jurisdictions are creating an alternate pathway for natural gas plants to bypass the lengthy interconnection queue which may allow for the rapid development of natural gas generators.
The case for carbon capture deployment
Electric utilities and developers of data center infrastructure are already planning to build substantial new natural gas generation assets in addition to maximal deployment of renewable electricity. CCS technology enables natural gas plants to deliver stable, continuous power while significantly reducing emissions by capturing up to 95% of emitted CO₂. Natural gas plants with CCS are a viable option to deliver the lower-emission, reliable power needed to respond to rapidly emerging AI data center power demand growth.
Benefits of integrating CCS into natural gas power generation
Integrating CCS into natural gas-fired power plants provides several advantages for data center stakeholders:
Reduced carbon emissions: Achieve emission intensities of approximately 80 – 120 kg of CO₂ equivalent per megawatt hour (CO₂e/MWh), significantly below the current US grid average of approximately 340 - 420 kg CO2e/MWh.
Reliable baseload power: Continuous, predictable electricity delivery.
Compact infrastructure: Requires less land compared to renewable energy projects, simplifying data center siting near existing infrastructure.
Cost: CCS integrated with new natural gas-fired generation can deliver low-cost decarbonization. Carbon Direct estimates $70-100/MWh, which is competitive in many markets with other firm baseload options such as new nuclear power or wind and solar with battery backup.
7 Key considerations for implementing CCS
Stakeholders considering CCS technology must carefully evaluate several critical factors:
Meeting rapid deployment timelines
Traditional natural gas plants can be operational within roughly 18 months, provided they bypass interconnection queues for reliability purposes and have access to key equipment. Integrating CCS technology extends this by an additional 18–36 months. Designing plants to be "capture-ready" allows for quicker initial deployment and smoother CCS integration in the future. However, deploying a capture-ready plant without a commitment to build the carbon capture portion is inconsistent with serious climate action.
Sizing plants optimally
CCS is most economically and environmentally optimal at natural gas plants with capacities of 100 megawatts (MW) or greater. It offers significant opportunities for emissions reductions for the forecasted new data center load. CCS is not suitable for smaller or highly variable natural gas plants.
Selecting effective carbon capture technology
CCS technologies such as solvents, sorbents, membranes, and oxyfiring vary significantly in maturity, efficiency, and cost. Choosing the right approach requires thorough evaluations aligned with specific project requirements.
Navigating CO₂ transportation logistics
The safe and efficient transport of captured CO₂ via pipelines, rail, or barges is critical. Aligning infrastructure planning with overall project timelines prevents delays.
Ensuring safe and effective sequestration
If there is no CO₂ storage, there is no project. Permanent CO₂ storage in Class VI injection wells requires detailed geological studies and regulatory permitting. Early collaboration with experienced sequestration operators is essential to success.
Conducting a comprehensive lifecycle analysis
Full lifecycle emissions analyses, including upstream methane leakage, construction impacts, and CO₂ transportation, are critical for accurate environmental assessments and ensuring low-carbon emission electricity supply. Prioritizing low-leakage, third-party verified natural gas supply enhances positive climate impacts.
Performing siting feasibility early
An early and quick feasibility assessment is critical to identifying promising opportunities and key barriers at candidate CCS sites. Important factors include available transmission capacity, the potential to expedite approval of interconnection for thermal resources, regulatory barriers, state and local incentives, the sufficiency of natural gas infrastructure, and water supply.
How Carbon Direct supports data center decarbonization
Natural gas-fired generation combined with CCS offers an additional solution for meeting the urgent electricity demands of data centers while significantly reducing emissions. Carbon Direct helps stakeholders navigate the complexities of CCS deployment through deep, science-backed expertise and strategic advisory services. Our experienced team provides comprehensive support throughout CCS project planning and execution, including technology selection, lifecycle emissions analysis, infrastructure assessment, regulatory compliance, and risk management.
Learn more about how Carbon Direct supports data center decarbonization.
For comprehensive insights, read the full white paper: Carbon Capture for Natural Gas-Fired Power Generation: Low-emissions power to meet rapid growth in electricity use.
